No Bounce? Biden Keeps Strong Battle-ground Lead-in Polls Post-Convention

Any slight uptick in favor of President Trump post-convention appears to have been temporary, as new polling shows Joe Biden maintaining a lead in five key battleground states, and gaining an edge in the traditionally red state of Arizona.

A new poll from Morning Consult — conducted August 21-30 in a survey of 17,813 likely voters — shows Biden ahead of Trump in Florida by 2 points, Michigan by 10 points, North Carolina by 2 points, Pennsylvania by 4 points, and Wisconsin by 9 points.

In Arizona, which went to Trump by more than 3 points in 2016 and hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since former President Bill Clinton in 1996, Biden has jumped out to a 10-point lead, after trailing Trump by 2 points in the state in a separate Morning Consult poll taken earlier in August.

Biden leads Trump nationally by 8 points (51% to 43%) buoyed by a 12-point lead among women (53% to 41%), and an 11-point lead among independent voters (48%-37%.)

A Morning Consult poll released Friday, following the end of the GOP convention, showed Biden’s lead shrinking nationally to six points, though the poll was conducted over just one day and had a smaller sample size (4,035 respondents.)

In a Morning Consult poll released after the 2016 conventions on July 31 of that year, Hillary Clinton led Trump nationally by just 3 points, a sign Biden holds a much more solid lead than the last Democratic nominee.

KEY BACKGROUND

Conventions will sometimes lead to polling boosts for either candidate, and several surveys showed Biden’s lead narrowing slightly following the end of the GOP convention, continuing a slight trend in August. However, Biden has maintained an average lead of around 6 points nationally, and polls have consistently shown the former vice president ahead in most battleground states.

TANGENT

Some analysts had mused that backlash to the civil unrest in Wisconsin following the shooting of Jacob Blake could hurt Biden’s election chances in the pivotal battleground state. Trump has sought to portray himself as the “law and order” candidate and Biden as soft on crime, claiming — falsely — that the Democratic nominee supports “defunding the police.” Support for protests has dipped since May when Americans first poured into the streets to demonstrate against the killing of George Floyd. In June, 62% of Americans viewed the protests as “mostly legitimate,” but by August, that number had decreased to 52%, according to surveys from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College. Wisconsin went narrowly to Trump in 2016 and proved pivotal to his victory in the Electoral College.

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